Sorry all, this is a little technical, but with an election coming up, please try to grasp this particular nettle. In short, take the time to number your preferences all the way down and make sure parties you hate go last. Hat tip to RiteOn for producing this excellent summary of a very complex issue.

How to Vote Part 2.
The Power of Preference Distribution

In Part 1 I explained how to make sure that your ballot paper is completed in accordance with the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) requirements and NOT rejected as Informal.  I also introduced the importance & the power of preferences in changing outcomes. If you missed Part 1 you can read it here

Part 2 now examines how members are elected to the House of Representatives – which decides who forms Government.  There were 150 members elected from across Australia in the 2016 federal election.  This time around, 151 members will be elected using the same compulsory preferential voting system & a 2 Candidate Preferred (2CP) methodology.  Part 2 goes into significant depth about how votes are cast, and how preferences are distributed & flow between candidates & parties.  First, by a study of a fictitious electorate called ‘SMALL’, and then the electorate of Dickson from the 2016 election which is shaping up as a key seat in the 2019 election & under intense Labor & Get UP activism.

YOUR PREFERENCE DECISIONS ARE NO ‘SMALL’ MATTER

The election in the fictitious electorate of SMALL was contested by 5 candidates (A,B,C,D, & E).

A total of 15 voters were registered with the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), and 15 ballot papers were cast (a 100% turnout).  The 15 ballot papers lodged with the voter’s order of preference are in the table below.

A total of 4 ballot papers marked candidate A with a number1 (1st preference).  Three of those ballot papers marked candidate B as the number 2 preference, candidate C as the number 3 preference, candidate D as the number 4 preference & candidate E as the number 5 preference.

One of the 4 marked candidate E as the number 2 preference, candidate D as the number 3 preference, candidate C as the number 4 preference & candidate B as the number 5 preference.  These 4 votes with the preference orders are shown in the following charts in yellow.

Similarly, the 1st preference votes for candidate B are coloured purple (2 votes), candidate C in blue (5 votes), candidate D in orange (3 votes) and candidate E in green (1 vote)

Now, let’s follow the count and preference flows to see who wins.

The Primary (1st preference) votes are counted first – Candidate C (blue votes) has won the primary vote with 5 votes or 33.33% of the total votes cast (15).   The candidate with the lowest number of votes is now excluded (candidate ‘E’ with 1 vote).

Candidate E’s vote (colour green) is now distributed to the candidate numbered 2 on the ballot paper (candidate A).  This is called a preference distribution. After distribution of candidate E’s preference vote, the process continues.  The next candidate with the lowest number of votes is now excluded (candidate B with 2 votes).

 Candidate B’s 2 votes (colour purple) are distributed to the next valid preference on each of the 2 ballot papers.

One of the votes has candidate D numbered 2.  Candidate D has not been excluded, this vote therefore is distributed to candidate D.  However, the other ballot paper has candidate E numbered 2, but candidate E is already excluded, therefore the vote is distributed to the candidate numbered 3 on the ballot paper i.e. candidate C.

The process continues.  Candidate D is now the candidate with the lowest number of votes (4) is the next excluded and preferences distributed.   Candidate D’s 4 votes include:- 3 1st preference votes (orange) and 1 second preference vote from candidate B (purple).

Candidate D’s three 1st preference votes (orange) have candidate B as number 2, but B is already excluded, therefore the three orange votes are distributed to the candidates numbered 3.   Two of the votes are distributed to candidate A.  The candidate numbered 3 on one of the votes however is E who is also already excluded, therefore this vote is distributed to the candidate numbered 4, i.e. candidate C.

The voting system in the fictitious electorate of SMALL & in the Australian House of Representatives elections is a 2 candidate preferred (2CP) system.  Through the exclusion of candidates & the distribution of their preferences, only 2 candidates now remain.  The candidate with the highest number of votes is declared ELECTED.  In this case Candidate A is ELECTED with 8 votes compared to candidate C’s 7 votes.

Candidate C may have won the most primary (1st preference) votes, but Candidate ‘A’ is ELECTED in the electorate of SMALL with 53.333% of the 2CP vote.

The distribution of preferences is a very complex process as candidates get excluded, BUT it is preferences that decide who is finally elected in many seats in the House of Representatives.
Take a look at the orange vote DBECA above – the vote rested with the second last preferred candidate C.

From Part 1, we saw that 102 of the 150 (68%) of House of Reps seats in the 2016 election were decided by preference votes.  This is why it is critical to understand the system and think very carefully of your preference order to make sure that your preference votes don’t unintentionally elect a non-preferred candidate.  Equally critical is to make sure that if your numbered 1 candidate is excluded that your preference order distributes votes to your next preferred candidates before non-preferred candidates.

 In a 2CP system, you can only guarantee that a candidate will NOT receive your preference vote if you number that candidate LAST.
This can be guaranteed because at least one of your earlier preferred candidates will be in the 2 candidate preferred race, and that’s where your preference will rest.

 A REAL ELECTORATE – ‘DICKSON’ at the 2016 election

The North Brisbane seat of DICKSON was contested by 6 candidates in the 2016 election.

The order of appearance on the ballot paper is a random draw process much like horse barrier draws.   Voters who fit into a category of don’t care, disillusioned or don’t understand often number their preferences from top down in numerical order.  These are called ‘donkey votes’.  The top spot on a ballot paper is much prized to attract the 1st preference ‘donkey vote’, and last spot dreaded.

In a 2 Candidate Preferred (2CP) voting system the candidate in the last spot would NEVER receive a preference vote from ‘donkey votes’.  Candidates above the bottom spot would always contain at least 1 (or maybe 2) candidates who would finish in the final 2 preferred candidates, and that’s where a ‘donkey vote’ preference would rest.

In the case of Dickson electorate below the candidates from left to right are in the order of the candidates on the ballot paper from top to bottom.  Doug Nicholson (LDP) drew top spot and Peter Dutton (LNP) drew the bottom spot.  Peter Dutton, therefore never received a preference vote from the ‘donkey votes’.   All ‘donkey votes’ rested at their number 3 preference, the ALP candidate who was not excluded & remained in the final 2 candidates.  It could be said that ALP benefited from donkey votes at Peter Dutton’s expense.

Let’s look at the detailed preference vote flows.

 Step 1. – Primary (1st Preference) votes counted

Peter Dutton (LNP) won the primary vote count with 44.56%, followed by Linda Lavarch (ALP) with 34.94%, and Michael Berkman (Greens) next with 9.87%.  With no candidate receiving >50% of the primary vote, preference votes decided the eventual winner.

Step 2. – Candidate with the lowest primary vote is excluded & preferences distributed.

The candidate with the lowest primary votes of 2,589 is Doug Nicholson (LDP).  He is excluded, and the number 2 preferences on his ballot papers are distributed & added to the relevant candidate’s total.  The Independent received 783 (30.24% of his number 2 preferences), ALP 354 (13.67%), Greens 222 (8.57%), FFP 371 (14.33%), and LNP 859 (33.18%).

 Step 3. – The next candidate with the lowest votes is excluded & preferences distributed.

After adding 783 preference votes from the LDP, the Independent Thor Prohaska has the lowest number of votes of 4000.  He is now excluded and the number 2 preference from his 3,217 primary votes & the number 3 preference from the 783 votes received from the LDP are distributed & added to the relevant candidate’s total.  ALP received 1,1,73 (29.33%), Greens received 993 (24.83%), FFP received 1,284 (32,10%) and LNP received 550 (13.75%).

Step 4& 5 – Candidates with the lowest votes are excluded & preferences distributed.

 The process of excluding candidates and distribution of preferences continues until only 2 candidates remain.  The next to be excluded is FFP, followed by the Greens with the final 2 remaining, ALP and LNP.  Prior to the Greens exclusion, the ALP had 34,556 (38%) of the vote, LNP 44,542 (48.98%) and the Greens 11,835 (13.02%).  It is worth understanding that of the 11,835 Greens votes to be distributed that 2,864 came from LDP, IND & FFP preferences.

ALP received 9,455 (79.89%) of the Greens preferences, and LNP received 2,380 (20.11%).  It is highly likely that most of the Greens distribution to the LNP came from the 2,864 LDP, IND & FFP preferences received by the Greens, NOT those who voted Greens number 1.

After the final distribution of the Greens votes, ALP’s Lavarch had 44,011 (48.40%) and LNP’s Dutton had 46,922 (51.60%) of the 2CP vote.  Peter Dutton was ELECTED.

A Summary for Conservatives:

Part 1, and the study in Part 2 of the ficticious electorate of SMALL & the real electorate of DICKSON 2016, have demonstrated the importance & power of preference votes in deciding seats and Governments, and the criticality of the preference order on the ballot paper in deciding who gets excluded & who remains in the 2 candidate preferred race to the finish line.

Rite-ON! urges all voters to make sure their preference ends up with an intended & preferred candidate or party with aligned values & policies to your number 1 choice, should their number 1 choice be excluded.

  1. Understand preferences are equally as important as primary votes, and treat them carefully.
  2. Know your electorate, and the location of polling booths.
  3. Learn what policies and values the candidates in your electorate support .
  4. If possible, avoid the election day crush and vote at pre-polling.
  5. Determine whether your preferred candidate or party has put any Labor, Greens or left-wing independents ABOVE other conservative candidates. If so, this is self interest ‘hostile preferencing’.  Don’t follow their how-to-vote (HTV) card!
  6. Understand that in most electorates the two-horse race will be between the major parties – even if you support the minor parties, or a conservative independent.
  7. Make sure the major party you DON’T want in government, is put LAST!
  8. Number every box on the ballot paper, understanding that your preferences will help elect the candidate and the government.

Part 3 will examine the Senate voting system and the detail of how preferences flow for “above the line” and “below the line” votes & elect Senators.

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Tosir
Member
Tosir

ISRAEL FOLAU :He quoted a verse from the bible which is the best selling book of all time and in every library and even taught in many schools in Australia.When I went to Primary school our teachers in the state system read it to us everyday.This man is being persecuted unjustly. I hope He gets a lawyer who goes all out !

lg
Member
lg

Just reading about a couple of French billionaires donating 300M Euros for the Notre Dame rebuild. People all over the world sending money – And . . . the Pope has sent his prayers.

the.trooper.remounted
Guest
the.trooper.remounted

2 dykes who used a poofs sperm to create a child have had a bust up and the mother wants to move to N Z but the REAL father ( the poof ) said no he won but on an appeal it goes back before the beek , IMO they,d be searching for a queer judge

Cosmik Debris
Member
Cosmik Debris

Wikipedia defines a phobia as a type of anxiety disorder, defined by a persistent and excessive fear of an object or situation. http://www.medicinenet.com defines a phobia as an unreasonable sort of fear that can cause avoidance and panic. Let’s just say that Israel Folau’s statements were the result of homophobia. If he is truly homophobic, then he is suffering from an anxiety disorder and should be treated as such. To discriminate against a person with a mental health issue is vilification. If he is not homophobic then there are many that have made libellous allegations against him. Is Raelene Castle… Read more »

pelican
Member
pelican

Shortonbrains and Turd vow to rebuild Notre Dame…

the.trooper.remounted
Guest
the.trooper.remounted

My one wish is that scomo could aim the truth at Billery big tits as he did with that bowl onto the jack , IMO still being controlled by the turd and loosey.

Matt12
Member
Matt12

It is looking like silly billy’s labor house of cards is wobbling, I’m glad I got in and got good odds with sportsbet on the election that labor has lost.

Observer-GC
Member
Observer-GC

Your vote does not count. The Greens have decided that Shorten will win. That is the end. Unfortunately DeNazi has not read the script and a similar situation arose in the USA. The certain winner lost…

Matt12
Member
Matt12

Isn’t it wonderful that the fagbots that expect, no, demand understanding, approval and acceptance of their vile habits, are the least likely to show the same to other members of society, we’re looking at you Quaintarse.

Panda
Member
Panda

It has been reported the the NZ Horse Yascinta is donning Papal Gear and heading on a Jolly to Paris to advocate the the burnt Notre Dame is turned into a mosque………..

Panda
Member
Panda

I just want to see journos asking day after day….to The Rapist……Shorten how can a Rapist and Thief of Millions ever expect to lead Australia?

Can you imagine if the rapist or thief was an LNP member?

Can Union bosses treat their members Millions like Pocket Money ?
What about the FW that stole 20 Million Dollars but only pleaded guilty to ONE million and had his wife ship the other Millions overseas to safety?

Flysa
Donor
Flysa

Never in the annals (sorry anals) of this land has there been a more disgusting exhibition of secular perversion than that of Rugby Australia against Israel Folau. A century ago sodomy carried life imprisonment.

Hotrocks
Member
Hotrocks

Although being in opposition for some years shorten doesn’t seem to have any sound policies .He is treating voters as he would a union rabble & seems to think he can bluff his way into the lodge . He will lose this election against morrison even though he has the backing of 85% of the msm . Go to Michael Smith News for a most revealing clip of a reporter(ch 10) actually doing his job & putting pressure on shorten to answer questions .If you look at the labor front bench it is full of the fools that were there… Read more »

loose_ends_wa
Member
loose_ends_wa

“DO YOU HAVE A PREFERENCE?” Yes I do.It is a dream.To have a Government that works for the people of Australia.A government that does not have hidden Agendas.A government that lives by the CREED of OUR CONSTITUTION.A Government that will not sell Australia down the Drain with our Sovereignty. A Government that when slicing up the pie of taxpayers wealth that the biggest slice is kept to service and benefit all the Australian People from our Young ones to our Senior Citizens.A Government that will not go with the BRAIN FARTS and WET DREAMS looking at all costs that these… Read more »

Rimmer
Guest
Rimmer

True Fake News. This is hilarious! https://youtu.be/_qRfiet0uB8

ejada
Donor
ejada

Shorten the Tax Bandit. Negative geering to go, accountant’s fees to no longer be tax deductable, franking rebates to cease (double taxing back). Top tax bracket up to 49%. Carbon tax coming back. Tax on fossil fuel vehicles. 30% tax on super pay-ins. And the closing of all coal mines. Jobs will disapear, homes will be lost, and the economy will collapse.

We can’t afford Bill Shorten.

Cosmik Debris
Member
Cosmik Debris

I was thinking that it would be a good rule where politicians have to live with anything they vote in for one year before they have a final vote that unleashes it onto the populace.

ejada
Donor
ejada

Shorten the Vandal. 50% EV’s by 2030 to be imposed on an electricity grid that is already at collapsing point. Like the demise of the horse and cart, the move from fossil fuel vehicles to battery vehicles should be driven by economic viability, infrastructure support and customers personal choices. It is criminal to force EV’s on the Australian people when the cobalt needed for EV batteries is comes via the early deaths of children in the Congo who mine it.

ejada
Donor
ejada

Shorten the Terrorist. 50 % renewables will collapse the electricity grid. We need affordable and reliable power. People die without heating in cold winters and cooling in hot summers. The very young and the very old are the most susceptible.

taxslave
Member
taxslave
ejada
Donor
ejada

Shorten The Destroyer. He intends to force people to pay more tax by stopping superannuation top-up schemes. The result more money ripped off hard working tradies and professionals resulting in less self funded retirees in the future. Shorten thinks he can spend our own money better than we can ourselves.

Franny
Guest
Franny

Someone here earlier said there was no internal damage to Notre Dame. Unfortunately not the case. Just saw footage on tv.

David of Sydney
Member
David of Sydney

Spire work : Notre Dame The “Owners” of the Cathedral went for the cheaper sub-contracting option and didn’t have a functioning group of site and project managers. The Bras Brothers (sounds like a Bikie gang) were the ‘Roofers’ who under bid for the Spire job, … and then burnt the whole Cathedral down. Roofers are tough guys who do things quick and simply. But, they cut with grinders and Blow torches and won’t take the slow option of cutting lead sheet with snippers, or cutting steel rods with a metal hand saw. Molten lead and hot metal sparks fell onto… Read more »

Franny
Guest
Franny

OT: 1. Senator Fraser Anning Retweeted
Matthew Thomas McDonald‏ @Real_Matty_Mac 18h18 hours ago
TIME columnist Christopher J. Hale @chrisjollyhale tweeted, “A Jesuit friend in Paris who works in #NotreDame told me cathedral staff said the fire was intentionally set.” and then he deleted the tweet after a few minutes. || #NotreDameFire #mepolitics

Tricky Woo
Member
Tricky Woo

To vote in Australia for free
You mark up your vote one, two, three
Then go on to four,
To fifty, or more
Or be fined in the mail – you’ll see

Missionchris
Member
Missionchris

French Police have no real leads on the arsonist of Notre Dame, however one of the Parisian Officers has a hunch, back at the station

Bikinis not Burkas
Member
Bikinis not Burkas

My preference is NO MUSLIMS IN AUSTRALIA.

Flysa
Donor
Flysa

Funny how fires break out accidentally in wooden domes of iconic Catholic Cathedrals scaffolded for restoration. “A fire broke out Friday night in the Turin Cathedral, where the Shroud of Turin is kept, but firefighters said early today that they had salvaged the linen, which is revered by some Christians as the burial cloth of Jesus. ”The Holy Shroud is safe,” said a police officer, ”but the situation inside the cathedral is dramatic.” To reach the reliquary where the Shroud is kept, firefighters had to break bulletproof glass protecting the linen, officials said. The cause of the fire was not… Read more »

Indignant Elder
Donor
Indignant Elder

Don’t forget to erase your computers people !

Six people appear in NZ court charged with illegally distributing livestream footage of Christchurch mosque shootings.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6924059/Six-people-appear-court-charged-distributing-livestream-footage-Christchurch-shootings.html

shango
Member
shango

Speaking of Notre Dame, did you hear that stupid Leftard bitch on Bolt just now?

RossleighB
Donor
RossleighB

I know it’s too early to speculate but I reckon Notre Dame was torched by a moslem. I might be wrong, then again I might not be.

Indignant Elder
Donor
Indignant Elder

About time too !
LMeteorologist says she got DEATH THREATS for interrupting the final round of The Masters to issue tornado warningset’s get get back to the REAL world, lol.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6926111/Meteorologist-received-thousands-complaints-death-threats-interrupting-Masters.html

MaxBilney
Member
MaxBilney

These lesbian sluts should be hosed down and gaoled.

JeffofFNQ
Donor
JeffofFNQ

About time the media started putting the pressure on when Shorten won’t answer a question. Bill Shorten has had a tense exchange with a reporter on the campaign trail who asked him about Labor’s emission reduction target. Mr Shorten was speaking to reporters in Bedford Park, South Australia on Tuesday when Channel 10 journalist Jonathan Lea asked him about the plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions. ‘When can voters expect to learn more about Labor’s emission reduction target, how you’re going to get there and the cost to the economy?’ Lea asked. ‘You’re not answering the question Mr Shorten,’ Lea… Read more »

MaxBilney
Member
MaxBilney

So you “never get a preferential vote from a donkey vote.” What a joke. The above donkey would be smarter than half our illiterate, non English speaking savages. Imagine a thing in a burqa voting. Imagine an 18 year old Somalian thug voting. Besides the new talk is that animals have rights and should be free to vote and do what they like. I could easily teach my intelligent budgie to vote.

MaxBilney
Member
MaxBilney

Already talk of a new Notre Dame being a multicultural, multi faith edifice. Maybe even a new name, say Allah’s Temple.

MaxBilney
Member
MaxBilney

Oh yeah, understanding the above voting procedure requires an IQ of above 98 points, which most Australian adults don’t have. Our 18 year olds, no hope. I ran it as an algorithm on my computer and it makes no sense. Hence Fraser, just a simple how to vote Senate and how to vote H of R. Should be simply first past the post and all dumbasses given Chinese like social credit points so that they are not allowed to vote. Certain posters on pp would be in the very low social credit category, including Inky and the Shadow. Angus would… Read more »

Let them eat cake
Guest
Let them eat cake

Fun fact: The Notre Dame Cathedral ‘tragedy’ happened on the same day as the Boston Marathon Bombing in 2013 – April 15.

the.trooper.remounted
Guest
the.trooper.remounted

So battered billery has another Ball biting light bulb moment He will make sure that Vets and pensioners have free blood test at no cost just wonderin if Pauline has lent ashby as an advisor ?

Inkeemegee
Guest
Inkeemegee

What amuses is the habit here of speculating: ie,,,, Notre Dame fries,,,,,,,,, WHY????? One day in who gives a shit?

ThePhantom Returns
Member
ThePhantom Returns

Breaking News from Townsville

Peter Ridd, the University Professor fired for telling the truth that did not fit into Global Warming theory has been vindicated with a court finding his sacking was unlawful.

Great news indeed, and well done Peter.
Now what will your next move be?
Back to work Monday or sue the arse off these troglodytes?

Flysa
Donor
Flysa

Are they kidding. The suppression order was to disguise one if the greatest travesties of justice in our history.

“Prosecutors in the southern state of Victoria have accused 23 journalists and 13 news outlets of aiding and abetting contempt of court by overseas media and breaching suppression orders aimed at ensuring Pell a fair trial.”

https://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKCN1RR06W

Angus
Member
Angus

Give out assault rifles to all white French men and tell to slaughter anyone with a tan. Problem solved!

Indignant Elder
Donor
Indignant Elder

Woman who swore allegiance to ISIS and tried to fly overseas to join the terror group is jailed as judge slams her for showing no remorse,

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6926553/Woman-swore-allegiance-ISIS-tried-fly-overseas-join-terror-group-jailed.html

Matt12
Member
Matt12

After reading how preferences flow in PT2, can I ask, did Rube Goldberg design this abortion.

BlackRoo
Member
BlackRoo

Oh dear, Billy Big Tits has said he will consider aid to France for the rebuilding of Notre Dame. Thank god common sense has prevailed and Morrison has said e was sure that President Macron could sort it all out. If Australians want to donate they can at will.

Indignant Elder
Donor
Indignant Elder

“Allah Est Grand” – Muslims LAUGH In Threads On Notre Dame Fire
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/04/muslims-l

“Allah Est Grand” – Muslims LAUGH In Threads On Notre Dame Fire
As news of the Notre Dame fire continues to capture the world’s attention, it appears as though those with arabic names are laughing about the tragedy.

Indignant Elder
Donor
Indignant Elder

Arson sounds like an appropriate response for throwing a book on the ground…… https://voiceofeurope.com/2019/04/copenhagen-in-fl
Copenhagen in flames after right-wing protesters provocatively throw t…
Violent riots erupted in the Danish capital on Sunday when the right-wing politician and Islam critic Rasmus Paludan, leader of the party Stram Kurs (…

Indignant Elder
Donor
Indignant Elder

Sheppard Smith invites an elected official from France onto his show, but when he brings up all the recent church vandalism by Muslims he cuts him off and ends the interview. Fuck Shep Smith! Send him to CNN already.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFVNn4Fc_uk

Indignant Elder
Donor
Indignant Elder

I don’t know about the rest of you, but I feel enriched!

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8848867/my-best-frie
‘My best friend’s parents suffocated her with a plastic bag on their l…
AS Shafilea Ahmed left work in her new T-shirt, she knew her mum was going to have something to say about it. But she had no idea the row which was ab…

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